Merve AYTAÇ, PhD student at Ankara University, doctoral trainee at CERDAP2

What makes the Horn of Africa so important? The Horn of Africa, which consists of the African shores of the Indian Ocean in the East and the Aden Gulf in the North, is a gate from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The strategic geopolitics of the Horn makes it important not only for regional security but also for the global economy. The Horn of Africa is on the main trade and transportation routes of oil and gas from the Gulf countries to the United States of America and Europe. Besides geopolitical importance, the region hosts rich resources that are not brought into the world economy, yet.

However, the threat of terrorism, illegal activities, and the fragile structure of countries cause the actors to involve in the region. The region, The Horn of Africa, is the name given to the eastern part of the « protruding » region of Africa. In the first and most general approach that stands out in determining the boundaries of the region; the countries covered by this region are defined as « narrowly » and accepted as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. As a second approach, in addition to the four countries in which the Horn of Africa is defined as « broad », four more countries, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda are considered within this region. As a third approach, Tanzania, further south, can be added to the definition of the region as the ninth country. Among these countries, Somalia has become a key country for establishing security in the continent.

Somalia: The Backbone of Türkiye’s Africa Policy

Since the civil war that broke out in Somalia in 1992, Somalia could not have stable social, political, and economic institutions. Hence the lack of state control and violence overall in the country led Somalia to be included in the fragile state index. Not only for the Horn region but also the international security, Somalia and the instability in the Aden Gulf caused different actors to involve in the region. In this context, United Nations kept UNOSOM I, UNITAF, and UNOSOM II operations in Somalia in the face of emerging critical security problems carried out in a broad perspective, including forcing peace, making peace, and maintaining peace, and humanitarian aid. However, the existence of Al-Shabaab as a terrorist organization, piracy, tribe and clan conflicts, drought, famine, and water problems prevent the establishment of stable socioeconomic and political institutions consisting of stable government and statecraft until 2011.

 Also, it is not enough to limit the issues that threaten security in the Horn of Africa region to these problems. Since in the region many issues from democracy to human rights, from economy to education continue to exist as sources of structural violence. Besides the regional actors, due to geostrategic location and natural resources, Europe, the US, and Gulf countries (United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt) have interest in the region. As a regional actor, Türkiye has had strong relations with the Horn countries especially Somalia since 1998 when Türkiye launched African Opening in her foreign policy.

After Türkiye is declared as the ‘Strategic Partner’ of the continent at the 2008 African Union Summit. Africa became one of the strategic fields of Türkiye’s multidimensional foreign policy. In 2013, the « Africa Policy Initiative » has been replaced by the « Africa Partnership Policy » and with the Partnership Policy, Türkiye aims to contribute to the region’s peace and stability and economic and social development. At the Second Türkiye – Africa Partnership Summit in Malabo, the capital of Equatorial Guinea, on 19-21 November 2014, a roadmap was determined to take the relations afurther. Somalia has a pilot position in Türkiye’s policies towards Africa as one of the best examples of humanitarian diplomacy-oriented foreign policy.

Comprehensive aid activities to Somalia continue and within this framework, Türkiye has initiatives on food supply, education, infrastructure, and health. Besides social aid, all required planning and strategic preparations were made by the Turkish Armed Forces for the restructuring of the Somalian Armed Forces at the School and Training Center opened in Mogadishu in 2017.

Foreign actors involved in Stateless Somalia

Somalia is the focal point for Turkish African Policy, and it is taken by policymakers as an exam for foreign policy. Türkiye’s existence not only contributed to the stability of Somalia but also Türkiye’s impression of Africa became clearer. However, while as a non-regional actor Türkiye is welcomed by regional countries, Ethiopia and Kenya which have historical conflicts with Somalia which is seen by them as the source of instability in the Horn, non-regional actors are suspicious of Türkiye’s actions in the region. One of these countries is Egypt that Türkiye and Egypt expelled the ambassadors reciprocally in 2013 after the coup d’état by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Not only to be more active in the Horn but also to balance Ethiopia with Egypt and Sudan have disputes and rejections for the construction and filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. In this connection, Egypt is trying to get close relations with Somalia where Türkiye and Qatar follow active policy. It is known that the previous president of Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Farmaajo had strong links to Ankara and Doha. According to Egyptian policymakers, that ensured Türkiye, and Qatar increase their gravity in Mogadishu. Even in this period, Türkiye was invited by Somalia to explore the oil and gas offshore of Somalia. However, Ankara was cautious about Somalian waters in this term, because of the ongoing maritime dispute with Kenya which the International Court of Justice redrew Kenya and Somalia sea border in 2021. Since Türkiye is careful to carry out its African policy without confronting other states. In this connection, it can be said that Türkiye’s relation with Ethiopia and Kenya has notable progress in last ten years. Especially Türkiye’s support and contribution to Ethiopian- Tigray negotiations with the US are welcomed by the Ethiopian government. It is known that Türkiye sold the Turkish drone ‘Bayraktar’ to the Ethiopian government to use in the ongoing conflict with Tigray People’s Liberation Front.  Addis Ababa and Ankara also are acting together against Al Shabab which has connection with Al-Qaida, the Islamist terrorist group. Türkiye not only for Ethiopia but also Kenya, where Al Shabab has attacked as well, assists to combat terrorism in the region. In this connection, Türkiye tries to follow African policy with neutrality and as a mediator between conflicting parties.

Egypt’s challenge to Turkish Interests in the Horn

On the other hand, Egypt is not pleased with the Türkiye’s position in Ethiopia. Because of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Egypt has conflict with Ethiopia. In this connection, by getting closer links to Somalia Egypt wants to involve in African policy. Thus, the successor of Farmaajo, Hassan Sheik Mohamud is elected in May 2022, has been known for his close ties to Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Previously the prime ministers of Egypt and Somalia met in August 2021 and the two sides reached a consensus on increasing investment in Somalia, Egyptian assistance to the Somalian army, and construction of Egyptian hospitals in Somalia. It is approved by a Somalian senior security officer that UAE and Egypt are training 3.000 Somalian soldiers in the training camps in Mogadishu. This venture of UAE and Egypt is evaluated as an attempt to create a parallel army and to decrease Turkish and Qatar existence in Somalia. As it is known Türkiye is aiding the Somalian army to get strengthened and assisting Somalia to combat terrorism. However, as not only Somalia but also Ethiopia and Kenya are appreciated Türkiye’s position in counter-terrorism against Al-Shabab, Türkiye is accused of supporting Al-Shabab which increased the attacks against Turkish companies and workers in Somalia.

As it is expected that Turkish and Egyptian interests would come across in Somalia, Sisi and Erdoğan shook hands at the 2022 World Cup ceremony. Erdoğan pointed out that future negotiations with Egypt are possible. How does the new situation between Türkiye and Egypt affect both countries’ position in Somalia?

Variable Counterpoise in the Horn

Through the stabilization, the region has begun to be rediscovered and attracted the attention of the world in recent years. Regional instability, migration and asylum seekers, drought and water problems, terrorism, and security problems in the Gulf of Aden kept Somalia in isolation from world politics, whereas the region is one of the main arteries of the global economy. In the context of the multidimensional foreign policy of Türkiye, since 2005 Turkish initiatives have said the want to contribute to the reconstruction of the Somalian economy and social life after the Civil War. The direct flights of Turkish Airlines to Mogadishu led the country open to the world and Somalia smoothed away diplomatic loneliness. The most controversial neighbor of Somalia undoubtedly is Ethiopia which followed the policy of fragmented Somalia to prevent Somalia’s territorial claims on Ogaden as another neighbor, Kenya. Both countries are extremely affected by the instability in Somalia and Al Shabab, therefore Türkiye elaborates the relations not only with Somalia but also with the regional actors.