Merve Aytaç, guest researcher and PhD student, CERDAP2, Université Grenoble-Alpes

With the 3330 km coastal line, Somalia has the longest coast of the African continent ensuring the country has diversified natural resources and a geopolitically unique position at the crossing point of the Red Sea, Aden Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. The international maritime trade between the American and Asian continents continues over Indian – Pacific Ocean Route. The ships are following the route of the Gulf of Aden to Asia through the Strait of Gibraltar, the Suez Canal, and the Straits of Bab El-Mandeb. Therefore, the security of the route is dependent on the stability of the coastal countries. For this reason, the situation in Somalia is not only a risk for the region but also it has the risks to endanger the international trade and security. Not only the situation inside Somalia but also the relations with the regional countries of the Horn could cause insecurity in the region.

On 17 January 2024, Ethiopia, a neighboring country of Somalia, with which there has been hostility for decades, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoA) with Somaliland. Somaliland is the northern part of Somalia which declared its independence in 1991. However, it has not been recognized by any other countries or organizations such as the United Nations since 1991. Ethiopia lost its coastal part after the independence of the Eritrea in 1993.   Thus, she became a landlocked country and has been looking for access to the sea through bilateral agreements with neighboring countries such as Djibouti and Eritrea. The new MoA enables to Ethiopia utilize the Port of Berbera in Somaliland and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somaliland announced that with the handline of ‘For Immediate Release, The Republic of Somaliland Government signs Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia for Seaport Access in Exchange for International Recognition ». According to the document, the Ethiopian state can construct a naval base and use the port for its imports and exports which is expected to decrease the Ethiopian dependency on Djiboutian ports since the secession of Eritrea. On the other hand, the MoA has not been welcomed by the international community and Somalian government which is evaluated as a threat to the Somalian territorial integrity. Because of terrorism, piracy, and drought, the Horn of Africa is one of the most unstable regions of the world. Such a movement that threatens the territorial integrity of the countries could cause a conflict between neighboring countries.

Since the region is important internationally, the actors from out of the region try to contribute the peace and stability in the Horn of Africa. One of these countries is Türkiye. Türkiye is monitoring a very active and consistent policy in Somalia. Türkiye claimed an African policy after the declaration of the ‘African Opening’ in 2007. In the context of the African Policy of Türkiye, the President of the Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited the country.  After the 2012 elections in Somalia, the country became more stable politically. In the election, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as the president, thus the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia was replaced with the Federal Government of Somalia.

In the construction of military and governmental institutions under the supervision of the organizations, Türkiye has played an important role as well. Somalia, as a country suffered from terrorism, piracy, unstable governments, insecurity, famine, and drought, needs the assistance of both organizations and the regional – nonregional actors. Since the visiting of Erdoğan, Türkiye claimed that he is in Somalia in the name of the humanitarian diplomacy and the welfare of the Somalian people. However, besides humanitarian assistance Türkiye took place in the Somalia’s newly shaped military affairs in the context of combating terrorism, Türkiye as a country has suffered from the same for nearly demi-century. This process deepened the countries relations. As a result, on 8th February 2024, two ministers of defense, Yaşar Güler and Abdulkadir Muhammed Nur signed a defense and economic cooperation agreement between Türkiye and Somalia. The agreement is signed after the MoA between Ethiopia and Somaliland, some circles criticized Somalia due to increase the tension between Ethiopia. However, the region needs to be securitized in the name of international maritime routes. After the October 2023 events in Gaza, some radical groups started to attack Israelian and American-flagged ships by benefiting the governmental blanks in the southern parts of the country.

Türkiye since 2017 in the context of the combatting of terrorism, TURKSOM (Somali-Turkish Task Force « African Eagle – Gorgor ») has educated Somalian military officers in Anadolu Base which is the largest overseas military base of Türkiye. Türkiye for decades combatting terrorism and as a NATO country Turkish Ministry of Defense and National Defense University have been training Somalian soldiers to combat the Al-Shabaab terrorist group. The 8th of February Agreement will ensure Türkiye assist the Federal Government of Somalia to construct a navy and to securitize Somalian territorial waters against terrorism, piracy, irregular migration, and illegal fishing activities for ten years.

It can be questionable that Somalia had the agreement after the Ethiopia- Somaliland MoA to intimidate both sides. However, since Türkiye arrived in Horn, she seems to follow more neutral policy. For this reason, it can be said that the concerns about Türkiye – Ethiopian relations would be unfounded. Due to that Türkiye ensures Turkish unmanned combat aerial vehicle Bayraktar TB-2 (SIHA) to Ethiopian Air Forces to combat in Tigray. Although the international press evaluated the cooperation as a deterrent against the Ethiopian – Somaliland MoA, the cooperation was welcomed by other actors in the region. Especially the US considers Türkiye as an intermediary country. Besides the US, the Turkish mission in peace initiatives was welcomed by the United Nations and Türkiye was exempted from the Security Council’s arms embargo in Somalia.

Following the defense agreement, in March 2024 the ministers of energy and natural resources of both countries met in Ankara and signed a cooperation agreement in exploring, producing, and distributing Somalian natural gas and petroleum reserves which are estimated to be around 35 billion barrels. For a couple of years, Türkiye has carried out exploration activities in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, the agreement ensures Türkiye shares and improves its experiences with Somalian offshores. The previous president of Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Farmaajo invited Mr. Erdoğan to explore natural gas in the Gulf of Aden however, it has never been officially documented. If Türkiye success for the natural resources agreement, it is expected that the contributions of resources to Somalian economy also ensures the state to be more stable and the society to be more prosperous.

However, between regional and non-regional actors, there is a variable balance. Many countries have military bases in Djibouti and Türkiye’s position could be questioned by China and UAE. On the other hand, Türkiye got closer to Ethiopia which has conflict with Egypt due to the construction of Renaissance Dam and Egypt has close ties with BAE which contesting in the Gulf with Qatar. Türkiye and Qatar relations are quite good and after the situation changed with the Sisi government of Egypt and the agreement in the Mediterranean, it seems that protection of neutrality and looking for a consensus for all the parties is quite difficult for Türkiye.

The new agreement seems like a win-win agreement for Türkiye and Somalia but while considering the actors of the Gulf, the agreement could be criticized by others. Especially the United Nations and the African Union operate a mission to stabilize the region and to secure the Somalian people. The position of Türkiye as both an economic and military ally of Somalia could overshadow the existence of the UN and AU in the region for the security sector. The United Nations’ security sector reform and related arms embargo in Somalia aimed to reduce violence and to ensure security both in mainland and maritime of Somalia. The bases and the military operations have been held under the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) by the African Union which has had the extended authority of the United Nations Security Council since 2007.  Such an actor besides the AU and UN could cause to that the disregard the missions of these organizations, especially the term that the African Union plans to withdraw from Somalia. On the other hand, it can be claimed that the country has the capability of reshape its internal security concerns besides piracy and terrorism. In this context, the non-regional actors are welcomed by the UN in the name of combatting to terrorism and piracy.