José Francisco Lynce Zagallo Pavia is Associate Professor at Lusíada Universities of Lisbon and Porto, Visiting Professor at Sciences Po Grenoble (2021)

Turkish foreign policy – since it has definitely given up hope of ever joining the European Union– has acquired a new realignment and a new ambition. Feeling the natural heir of the former Ottoman Empire, Turkey today has a variable geometry that goes from the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, through the Arab world and on to Africa. Here it will compete with traditional players such as the European Union, the United States of America and, now, the People’s Republic of China, among others. Will it be able to make a difference? Apparently –and according to the results of the last Turkey-Africa summit– the short-term prospects are quite positive.

From total alignment with the West to neo-ottoman ambitions

Since the founding of the Republic in 1923, with Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, that Turkey has chosen to head towards westernization. This process has begun with the 1921 constitution –coincidently this year (2021) marks the centennial of that founding constitution– that paved the way to the institutionalization of the modern Turkish State. This process was not peaceful, with the Turks having to fight in what they called the “war of independence” which led to the Treaty of Lausanne (1923), where international recognition of the new Republic was obtained.

It should be remembered that, following the defeat in World War I, the Ottoman Empire, under the Treaty of Sévres (1920), had been forced to cede territories, accept areas of influence and agree to the creation of a Kurdish State. It was precisely the terms of this treaty, considered unacceptable by Turkish nationalists, that led to the ‘war of independence’, which culminated in the aforementioned Treaty of Lausanne, much more favorable to Turkish pretensions.

This policy of westernization lasted throughout the last century. Turkey has maintained neutrality in the II World War, until February 1945, when it decided to enter on the side of the Allies; thus, the invitation to the inaugural meeting of the United Nations. In 1949 it recognizes the State of Israel, another step in the proximity with the West, for the dismay of its Arab neighbours. In 1952, Turkey become a member of NATO and, in 1963, its application for membership of the then, European Common Market was accepted.

Turkey was during the entire Cold War a valuable partner of the West in the containment of the Soviet Union and at the same time a bridge-country between Europe and Asia and between Islam and Christianity. However, after the end of the Cold War Turkey has lost much of its geostrategic importance to the West and, furthermore, it began to be realized that Turkey would never join the European Union, after Greece had acceded in 1981 and Cyprus in 2004. Between the end of the last century and the beginning of this century, a new foreign policy was designed that will be known as Neo-Ottomanism.

Ottomanism and multidimensional foreign policy

Former president Turgut Özal came to power by the end of 1990s coinciding with important international changes like the end of the Cold War, the implosion of the Soviet Union and the first Golf war, so he tried to use these new circumstances to ease the international conflict by directing Turkish policy towards pragmatism, where he expressed his opinion by saying that ‘I am convinced that Turkey should set aside its previous reluctant policy and enter into active new policies ».

This shift was a direct consequence and the perception by the Turkish that the accession to the European Union was compromised and so a new policy was needed. This assumption of a new foreign policy was later accompanied by a move away from secularization and laicization, which had been a hallmark of Turkey. Also, at this time (2001), the justice and Development Party (AKP) was formed, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdullah Gul, who will emerge winners of the 2002 elections; since then, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was President or Prime-Minister of Turkey. Neo-Ottoman ideology can be described as a kind of attempt to restore the former glories of the Ottoman empire. The aim would be that Turkey should extend its influence to the Arab world, North Africa and former Soviet republics of Central Asia, in addition to the Balkans. Furthermore, it should pursue its own interests, irrespective of whether these might clash with those of its NATO allies.

The principle of multidimensional foreign policy could be anchored in the idea that the relations between international actors are not substitutes for each other, but rather complementary. Thus, being a member of NATO should nor prevent good relations with Russia; having diplomatic relations with Israel should not prevent proximity with the Arab world or being a dialog partner with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation should not be an obstacle to have friendly relations with the West. It should be taking into account that Turkey is a member of the G20, an indisputable regional power and the heir of a former great empire; so, these ambitions are a way of escaping the modest role that according to this new leadership Turkey is not doomed.

In terms of domestic politics, this policy moves away from the Kemalist principles of secularization and laicization, adopting instead an alliance with the more conservative Islamists and their vision of the State and society. It has also been noted a growing authoritarianism of the Turkish authorities, which has sharply intensified after the failed coup d’état in 2016. This episode was used to sharply limit individual, assembly, association and press freedoms, leading to Turkey is currently classified as Not Free by Freedom House.

Africa’s new great game

One of the geographical areas that Turkey considers to be its natural influence is Africa; not just North Africa that was part of the former Ottoman empire, but also sub-Saharan Africa. Turkey is not alone in this new interest in Africa, which has been noted since the beginning of the century. Many other countries have shown this interest, in addition to those that were traditional like the former colonial powers, the US and more recently China. From Japan, Brazil, Malaysia and Russia to India, there has been a growing appetite for Africa and its riches. In such a way that comparisons are already made with the great race to Africa that took place following the famous Berlin conference of 1884/85. According to Folashadé Soulé, such a narrative is misleading since the current situation is completely different. From the outset because in the 19th century the Africans were simply not heard and a division was carried out with a ruler and square of the current African borders; the current situation is obviously different. Furthermore, Africans can now ‘play’ with the rivalries between the different actors, taking advantage of the situation and safeguarding their best interests.

Turkey did not want to be left behind in this new great game and, also within its multidimensional foreign policy, it has dramatically increased its presence in Africa, already rivaling some more traditional powers. The numbers speak for themselves: Trade volume between Turkey and Africa is enormous, as economist Guven Sak from the Turkish Institute for Economic Policy (TEPAV) told DW. ‘The sum total of all projects completed on the continent to date is around $70 billion (€62 billion).’ In 2020, says Sak, Turkish exports to Africa valued $15 billion. Turkish Airlines, the country’s national carrier, which only flew to North Africa in 2003, now flies to 51 destinations in 33 African countries, 26 of them in sub-Saharan Africa. Another impressive development is that the number of Turkish embassies in Africa has risen from 12 in 2002 to the current figure of 43. In December 2021, similarly to what other countries and regional organizations do, Turkey organized the third Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit where the overwhelming majority of African countries were represented. At this summit, among other agreements, Turkish President Erdogan promised to send 2.5 million doses of COVID vaccine to Africa.

This new relationship has been described as a win-win one, as African countries manage to have a new cooperation partner, which grants them credits, carries out investments and which can rival traditional powers, namely the former colonial powers and the States United of America. Turkey gets allies, gets a huge market for its exports and gets access to a huge variety of raw materials. An interesting case has been the cooperation in the field of defense and the sale of weapons, namely drones. Turkish-made drones have been used with great success in the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabagh; they have already been acquired by Morocco, Ukraine and Tunisia, with significant interest from other African countries in its acquisition.

In short, Turkey is definitely a partner that Africa can count on and can even rival other former colonial powers in countries and territories where they used to be dominant in the fields of cooperation, trade and investment. People´s Republic of China had already surpassed these powers in its presence in Africa; is it now Turkey’s turn? Apparently, so far, Turkey has been achieving its goals. But, in terms of consistency and long term, only the future will be able to tell.